Thursday, June 20, 2013

EUR vs USD is going south this week

After thinking about publishing my forex demo account stats here, I finally came to the conclusion that I must share my results and my trades with you guys. In my previous article I wrote that it's possible to earn some money, but you have to practice a lot in fx practice account until you come up with a trading strategy that works and money management that is good for your capital and doesn't blow it up within a week or two.
Right now I have several demo accounts where I am testing various strategies (trend, swing, range) and money management techniques. 
What I find interesting is that almost all my strategies work one way or another, but even my demo accounts are blown up from time to time. So I started thinking why it’s happening like this. What's wrong with my trading, and why profitable strategies turn my account to losers? 

What I found out after analyzing my trading style and character was shocking. It's not my strategy that's important here. It's my character and discipline. So right now I am keeping to strict trading discipline and money management, because it's more important than just having a super strategy bringing thousands of pips per month. That’s just some thought to take into account, when making the next trade...

Let's head on to my trading account and my trades...

Yesterday I was buying several EUR/USD pair positions from 1.3405 with stops at 1.3379. As it was my demo trading account, I made some trades without any stop losses and forgot that there was a FOMC and rate decision to be made by the US officials in the evening. I got pretty much busted, when I opened my demo trading account and saw that my EUR/USD trades without stop loss orders are in deep sh...(OK, OK…minus). I closed them instantly and opened opposite trades selling EUR/USD from 1.3290. It’s a pity that EUR USD price went so much down in the first hour (more than 140 pips), but anyway, it's best to trade with trend than against it. 

Right now I suggest waiting for the price to touch at least 1.3285 and then sell euro and buy dollar again. We might see the pair retrace to this level today in the evening or tomorrow, depending what kind of news the US releases. Today we will hear the initial jobless claims and existing home sales reports later in the afternoon and those might trigger the market in either direction, especially when there is such an extended trend. If prices shoot up for the EURO and other currencies against the dollar, I suggest buying USD from safe levels after the storm calms down and the emotions in the market cease. On the other hand, if US news comes out better than expected, then we will see the extension of the USD currency trend against all other currencies. 

I am also on the lookout for USD/CAD currency as it seems that this pair is ready for major moves up. The best entry level is right at 1.0287. Stops should not be over 100 pips and if the market moves in your direction then stops have to be moved to break even levels to preserve the capital and money. 
I have learned one lesson in my early trader’s life: you can never be sure about the next move in the currency market. Just when you think that the new trend is beginning and the old one is finished, the price comes back with a new momentum, breaking all the resistance and support levels and taking all your stops losses. So, it’s better to be prepared for any unexpected moves.

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